PostgreSQL minor releases normally replace binaries within a major line; major upgrades change the data compatibility boundary and require supported methods such as pg_upgrade, logical migration, or dump/restore. Managed services automate infrastructure tasks, not ownership of schema, queries, security, recovery evidence, extensions, costs, or application behavior. Every path needs rehearsal and rollback criteria.
An upgrade is a system migration: database binaries/data, extensions, clients/drivers, SQL behavior, statistics/plans, replicas, backups, automation, and applications. “Provider supports version 18” is not compatibility proof.
Compare managed providers on supported versions/extensions, superuser restrictions, network/identity, HA semantics, backup/PITR/restore granularity, maintenance control, observability, connection pooling, storage/IOPS scaling, read replicas, encryption, egress, quotas, support, and exit path.
Stabilize and protect evidence; name incident commander, operations lead, communications, and scribe. Declare customer impact and stop harmful automation. Prefer reversible mitigations. Track timeline, hypotheses, commands, approvals, and results. After recovery, repair systems and causes rather than blaming individuals.
pgvector and other extensions add upgrade compatibility. Reindexing embeddings can outlast database cutover. During incidents, disable or degrade AI generation before compromising authorization or core ticket writes. A read-only/search-degraded mode is better than leaking stale policy.
Run an isolated major-version rehearsal or write a provider-specific evidence plan: restore/copy, extension check, application suite, plan regression set, backup/failover test, cutover timing, and rollback. Run a tabletop for disk-full WAL retention plus degraded model provider.
Build a decision matrix for native PostgreSQL versus two hypothetical managed offerings, without naming a winner before weights.
Acceptance criterion: recovery drill, extension portability, maintenance/failover behavior, observability, cost, and exit path carry explicit weights and evidence requirements.